Every added gigawatt raises forecast error, and forecast error is settled on the intraday market.
Wind and solar went from 17% to 58% of German production between 2010 and 2025, and storage has not kept pace. Everyone who commits volumes before knowing them carries the risk, and it strikes hardest exactly when the forecast error is largest.
Continuous intraday volume has grown fifteenfold since 2015, Germany leads it, 15-minute products are a third of the volume, and 30% of it now trades in the final hour.